Will digital banking banking be closer to e-commerce (6–7%) or music (90%). I think it will be closer to music. It will be more like print vs online where:

Older people prefer print/branches at least for a while (Kindle ended up converting a lot of Baby Boomers). Executives who want proof that this “new hyped stuff will blow over soon” point to this as a reason for inaction.
A few niche services thrive in the old format (e.g Wired Magazine, Economist, FT) with clever combining of print + digital. These are — quite rightly — lauded success stories. However they are also outliers/exceptions and mainstream is now digital.
Banks today are ‘data centers with fancy lobbies’ like media businesses around 2005. If the same trajectory plays out as in media, the % of financial services that is delivered digitally will be like the media business within 10 years — which is the gestation period of a Unicorn and the planning horizon for those involved in strategic planning for banks.

Bernard Lunn, What banks can learn from media companies that were hit by the digitization tsunami a decade ago (via futuramb)

Work ecologist. Founder, Work Futures. The ecology of work and the anthropology of the future.

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